Journey with Della

I sat on my desk completely unsure what the day and the rest of the month would look like. It was becoming a trend. All the input i needed from my partners to make decisions wasn’t forthcoming because Covid-19 made it hard for any of them to know anything for sure.

“We should probably wait another week or two to see if anything changes” was becoming the more logical conclusion. Well, that or “please can we postpone the training until things return to normal?”

But for how long? I wondered. I was getting very agitated by the circumstances-conditioned feedback I was getting.

Just then my phone rang. It was another leader who had requested that my team come train his team the following month. “Can we…?”

“No we can’t postpone. The schedule is filling up pretty quickly for my team and I so should you decide to postpone, you can be sure that we might not be coming your way at a later date this year like you hope.” I cut in before he had even finished his question.

Then silence… And …more silence.

Just when I was starting to think that I might have misread him and misrepresented myself to this leader, I heard his voice on the other end.

“So what can we do in the face of this virus?” He asked. Smiling so broadly anyone could hear it on the phone, I proceeded to lay down different options before him. At the end, we agreed on a doable plan.

“That was easy…” I thought to myself feeling very fulfilled.

I knew that the real problem wasn’t quite the circumstances, it was the lack of perspective. When the normal we have come to know gives way to a series of rapidly changing circumstances which are not only beyond our control but as frightening as what the Covid-19 pandemic brings with it, it is easy to get into freeze mode as a leader. The average leader waits for a return to normalcy (whatever that means).

But what if Covid-19 tarries a few more months or years (God forbid!)? How much longer are you willing to keep everything on hold?

If you find yourself in a similar place as a leader, try scenario planning. Defined as the art/science of preparing for multiple potential futures. Although it is used in long term organizational planning, I have found that is provides a great way to effective leadership in these uncertain times.

Given that no one can predict with any certainty what trajectory the current pandemic would take in the weeks and months ahead, we can take control of things by creating different potential futures and then planning a response for them. You get it? Scenarios = different potential futures/outcomes and planning = preparing for each one. Hence the concept of scenario planning.

For the teams I currently lead, this means considering at least three outcomes in these corona times:

1. Best case scenario: corona disappears and things return to normal. While this is the most hoped for, we are not naive to think that there is such a thing as a return to normal. We are most certain that after corona has run its course, a new normal will emerge. In designing this scenario, that is what we plan for.

2. Worst case scenario: things worsen and stricter measures have to be implemented in Cameroon. The jury is still out on whether or not our government is both ready and doing what it should be doing to combat this pandemic. Regardless of what they do or do not do, my team and I have given ourselves permission to imagine what the majority would rather not – that things can actually get worse. If there is anything to learn from the experiences of other nations, it is the fact that corona virus is not respecter of the capacity or level of preparedness of governments. In this scenario, we imagine a complete shut down and plan our response accordingly.

3. Current scenario: things remain the same at the time of the event/activity we are preparing for. From the prayers of children to the wishes of parents, everyone longs for an end to this pandemic. However, not even our highly esteemed scientists can predict when that would happen. One thing we know and believe is that this too shall pass but until then, we prepare for what our response would be if it hasn’t yet passed at the time of our program.

If nothing else, these three scenarios should prepare you adequately for the immediate future albeit filled with great uncertainty. But if you are feeling creative enough, treat yourself to more scenarios. Notice that each of the three scenarios I describe above can be further split into at least two others. So, there is an endless world of possibilities that you can design with scenario planning.

If you can imagine it as a possible outcome, you can plan for it and if you can plan for it, you can achieve it.

With scenario planning, you can transform the helplessness you feel into fuel to ride through potential outcomes amidst life’s uncertainties. And yes, it can work for individual and family plans as well.